Maybe thats why its so good up here in Jersey - All the fish just came straight up.
Seriously though, you are dead on about the bait. I've seen the entire inshore giant tuna fishery here in NJ completely die as a result of the loss of the bait fish. Ever hear of a whiting ??? They used to be so plentiful we would pick them up off the beaches. Now, they are basically extinct. OH, yeah and guess what - the big fish no longer come around.
Whats going on with the bunker down your way is sickening.